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Morocco: Feeling pressure from Europe- OBG


NAU - publié le Friday, July 13th à 22:55 modifié le Friday, July 13th - 23:59

Spill over from the eurozone crisis, combined with muted foreign visitor arrival numbers and a slump in agricultural output, have greatly impacted Morocco’s economic performance in the first half of 2012, with challenges still to come for the remainder of the year, says Oxford Business Group ( OBG)in its economic update.



Morocco: Feeling pressure from Europe- OBG
 It points out that Bank al Maghrib says in its June statement that the  Moroccan deficit is widening and that Moroccans living and working abroad (MREs) are remitting only 2 % year on year from 8.2 % the previous year.Travel receipts fell 0.2% after rising 13% by the end of May 2011.

The Bank al-Maghrib has kept its base lending rate at 3% . In March it explained that  the low rate of economic activity and the raising of potential risk had tcaused it to reduce the lending rate by 25 base points, something it had not done for 3 years. Tourism is a vital sector for the economy and decling tourism arrivals reflects the worsening financial situationin Europe where 70% of Morocco's tourists come from including France,Spain,
Germany and Belgium.

The Ministry of Tourim   reported a 9% decrease in January 2012 compared to the same month last year and a 5% decrease in February 2012 compared to February 2011. However tourism receipts stayed up year on year despite the downturn in numbers.Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) which favours tourism and real estate was
down 11.8%.

Morocco is vulnerable to Europe's downturn because the EU has always been its major trading partner  as regards tourism. Tourism’s direct contribution to the economy was estimated at Dh71.8bn (€6.5bn), or 8.9% of GDP, in 2011, according to the World Travel & Tourism Council (WTTC).Its total direct and indirect contribution, however, was estimated to be Dh152.5bn (€13.8bn), some 19% of GDP. The sector is also the second-largest industry in terms of jobs, employing 834,500 Moroccans, accounting for 7.8% of total employment.

The Arab Spring protests saw a decline in tourism in 2011 and 2012 and to counteract its effects the Moroccan government increased public sector pay  and trebelling food and energy subsidies to over US6 billion . 

As a result, the budget deficit is expected to account for 5% of GDP by the end of 2012,, according to the Governor of the Central Bank. Drought and a cold snap caused the cereal harvest twill drop by 50%.The Central Bank expects growth this year to remain at less than 3% for overall GDP and between 3% and 4% for non-agricultural GDP. This is down from the 4-5% growth the IMF estimated the country would see in 2012 OBG, concludes.










           


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